Results are IN!

The results of the first ever Aionic Thoughts poll are in!  For those of you who did not vote, the question put to Aion fans was simple; How well will Aion do in the West within 6 months of release?

So, here are the results:

Coming in first, with 36% of the vote is: “Great! Over 800,000 subscribers and threatening WoW”

Coming in second, with 33% of the vote was: “Very good. 400,000 to 800,000 subscribers”

Third, with 17% of the vote: “Good. 250,000 to 400,000 subscribers”

Fourth, with 10% of the vote: “Decent. 100,000 to 245,000 subscribers”

And last, with only 4% of the vote: “It will bomb. Less than 100,000 subscribers”

As you can see, hopes are undenialbly high.  Most who voted think that Aion will be the first true competition to WoW’s covetted MMO crown.  Hitting the 800,000 mark within six months of release will make Aion, by far, the largest subscription-based MMO in the world not made by Blizzard Entertainment.  In addition, it would put Aion in position to challenge WoW very, very quickly.

So, what was my vote?  What do I think?  I actually voted for what ended up being the runner up, 400,000 to 800,000.  This would still make Aion the second place contender for the MMO crown.

I think Aion will open up to between 350,000 to 600,000 initial sales.  It will not challenge Warhammer Online or even Age of Conan, which opened up to unprecedented hype and nearly 800,000 initial sales.  However, both WAR and AoC leaked subscribers nearly immediately, as lack of polish and an unfinished endgame revealed themselves.  I do not think Aion will suffer from this type of subscriber leak.  The game is polished and there is a working endgame with tons to do.

I think the positive word of mouth will cause Aion to grow at a fairly steady rate, eventually getting near that 800,000 range.  Depending on how WoW’s next expansion goes and what NCSoft has lined up for Aion, we may see Aion closing the gap even more.

Anyway you slice it, I think Aion’s future is very bright.  Barring a horrible launch or NCSoft’s infamous “botting” problem showing up, I think this will be the second largest MMO in the West and in the world.

Tomorrow I will be putting up another poll, please come back and vote on this one and thanks for taking the time to vote on the last one!

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4 Responses

  1. I assume your poll was referring to the western markets only? In which case I voted for the 400,000 to 800,000 range myself, but Aion is actually already the second highest subscription based MMO in the world from the Asian audience alone. At last count the game was carrying about 3.5 million subscribers.

    • Yes, it was for the Western market only. It is the second largest sub-based MMO at this time, due to the Eastern market. However, a large sub base here in the West will cement it as a successful game. For some reason or another many MMO players discount the Eastern market, even WoW’s Eastern sub-base. Success here in the West will be a huge coup for Aion.

  2. While I am a rabid advocate of Aion, I hesitate on my poll vote simply because WoW made a lot of effort to support the casual gamer. If you think about it, that kind of helping hand enabled parents to play with their children (in some cases, vice versa), allowed the employee to keep up with the unemployed (who could put 8 hrs more into the game), etc.

    While I don’t have numbers to support this, I imagine this is a significant portion of WoW’s subscription base (though not majority).

    Having said that, I think Aion will attract MMO players from all games who thrive on serious competition and PvP.

    keep up the awesome thoughts 🙂
    -skai from Feathers of Aion

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